Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46%, against 33% on a calm day. Safest: AA 6409 at 15:11, 36%.

Safest bet today AA 6409 AUS 15:11 → LAX 16:37 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 1291 AUS 20:43 → LAX 21:56 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Weather 46% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 6409 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 15:11	LAX 16:37	36%	12%	0.3%	85%worse than usual
OO 6243 SkyWest	AUS 14:59	LAX 16:22	38%	11%	0.3%	no record
UA 5841 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 14:10	LAX 15:40	39%	9%	0.2%	90%worse than usual
WN 359 Southwest	AUS 22:45	LAX 00:01	40%	18%	0.2%	no record
UA 419 United	AUS 19:51	LAX 21:06	40%	15%	0.2%	no record
DL 1584 Delta Flight history →	AUS 20:30	LAX 21:43	49%	19%	0.2%	84%worse than usual
DL 986 Delta Flight history →	AUS 16:15	LAX 17:20	50%	18%	0.2%	68%worse than usual
WN 65 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 20:50	LAX 22:00	58%	16%	0.1%	70%worse than usual
WN 4807 Southwest	AUS 17:50	LAX 19:05	58%	19%	0.2%	no record
AA 1291 American Flight history →	AUS 20:43	LAX 21:56	58%	21%	0.3%	72%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON