tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:31 am at San Francisco Bay Area); 9 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 24 nonstops

Today: AA 2305 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–52%.

Safest bet today AA 2305 SFO 06:45 → DFW 12:29 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 4313 SFO 16:01 → DAL 21:37 · 52% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.
AA 2305 American Flight history → SFO 06:45 DFW 12:29 12% 2% 1.2% 83%
AA 304 American Flight history → SFO 07:48 DFW 13:19 22% 4% 1.1% 93%worse than usual
AA 2904 American Flight history → SFO 08:00 DFW 13:40 28% 4% 1.2% 86%worse than usual
UA 1722 United Flight history → SFO 23:59 DFW 05:45 30% 8% 0.7% 79%
AA 1711 American Flight history → SFO 17:01 DFW 22:47 31% 11% 0.7% 51%
AA 2228 American Flight history → SFO 23:20 DFW 04:59 31% 8% 1.3% 27%
UA 1062 United Flight history → SFO 08:33 DFW 14:25 32% 5% 0.3% 86%worse than usual
AA 1188 American SFO 09:06 DFW 14:37 32% 6% 1.1% no record
WN 4046 Southwest OAK 15:15 DAL 20:40 33% 7% 0.4% no record
UA 1336 United SFO 16:39 DFW 22:19 33% 10% 0.2% no record
AA 2205 American SFO 15:57 DFW 21:31 36% 12% 0.8% no record
UA 2842 United Flight history → SFO 10:25 DFW 16:08 38% 7% 0.3% 61%
AA 2325 American Flight history → SFO 15:38 DFW 21:25 38% 12% 0.8% 49%
AA 3258 American Flight history → SFO 12:30 DFW 18:26 38% 9% 0.9% 73%worse than usual
AA 3222 American SFO 12:36 DFW 18:08 40% 10% 1.0% no record
AA 2572 American Flight history → SJC 11:47 DFW 17:30 44% 11% 0.8% 75%worse than usual
AA 2046 American Flight history → SJC 12:10 DFW 17:50 44% 11% 0.8% 82%worse than usual
AA 557 American SFO 17:37 DFW 23:07 45% 10% 1.3% no record
AA 436 American Flight history → SJC 14:23 DFW 20:04 45% 14% 0.8% 62%
AA 2834 American Flight history → SJC 14:37 DFW 20:03 45% 14% 0.8% 73%worse than usual
AA 2387 American Flight history → SFO 14:03 DFW 19:59 45% 12% 1.0% 50%
AA 1849 American Flight history → SFO 11:24 DFW 17:14 46% 9% 1.0% 45%
WN 1859 Southwest Flight history → SFO 15:10 DAL 20:45 46% 8% 0.2% 17%
WN 4313 Southwest SFO 16:01 DAL 21:37 52% 10% 0.2% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON