tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:16 am at San Francisco Bay Area); 14 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Today: UA 1722 at 23:59 is the safest bet, 28% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33–60%.

Safest bet today UA 1722 SFO 23:59 → DFW 05:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 2834 SJC 14:36 → DFW 20:03 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time
Against a calm day 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 41% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 14 flights that already left today are not shown.
UA 1722 United Flight history → SFO 23:59 DFW 05:45 28% 7% 0.8% 79%
AA 1711 American Flight history → SFO 17:01 DFW 22:47 33% 14% 1.2% 51%
AA 2228 American Flight history → SFO 23:20 DFW 04:59 33% 8% 1.8% 27%
UA 1336 United SFO 16:39 DFW 22:18 35% 11% 0.4% no record
AA 557 American SFO 17:36 DFW 23:07 35% 14% 1.1% no record
WN 4046 Southwest OAK 15:15 DAL 20:40 38% 7% 0.3% no record
AA 3258 American Flight history → SFO 12:30 DFW 18:26 40% 11% 1.4% 73%worse than usual
AA 2205 American SFO 15:56 DFW 21:31 43% 14% 1.1% no record
AA 2325 American Flight history → SFO 15:38 DFW 21:25 45% 15% 1.2% 49%
AA 3222 American SFO 12:35 DFW 18:08 45% 12% 1.4% no record
WN 1859 Southwest Flight history → SFO 15:10 DAL 20:45 46% 10% 0.2% 17%
AA 1849 American Flight history → SFO 11:24 DFW 17:14 49% 14% 1.3% 45%
AA 2387 American Flight history → SFO 14:03 DFW 19:59 50% 15% 1.0% 50%
WN 4313 Southwest SFO 16:01 DAL 21:37 53% 11% 0.2% no record
AA 2572 American Flight history → SJC 11:47 DFW 17:30 54% 23% 1.3% 75%worse than usual
AA 2046 American Flight history → SJC 12:09 DFW 17:50 58% 27% 1.3% 82%worse than usual
AA 436 American Flight history → SJC 14:23 DFW 20:04 60% 19% 1.3% 62%worse than usual
AA 2834 American Flight history → SJC 14:36 DFW 20:03 60% 20% 1.3% 73%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON