Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:19 pm at Boston); 6 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47%, against 14% on a calm day. Safest: DL 5629 at 19:25, 46%.

Nonstops today


DL 5629 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 19:25	CMH 21:50	46%	23%	0.7%	72%worse than usual
AA 4641 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:06	CMH 20:27	47%	22%	0.7%	69%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 17:15 → DTW 19:39DL 1432	3h 11m Detroit	DTW 22:50 → CMH 23:56DL 5634 · flown by Republic	6h 41m	91%	77%
United Details →	BOS 17:00 → ORD 19:00UA 2040	2h 30m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → CMH 23:59UA 1492	6h 59m	89%	65%
United Details →	BOS 18:05 → IAD 20:20UA 3543 · flown by Republic	2h 11m Dulles	IAD 22:31 → CMH 00:02 +1UA 3646 · flown by Republic	5h 57m	78%	63%
American Details →	BOS 17:49 → DCA 19:49AA 1421	2h 35m Washington	DCA 22:24 → CMH 23:51AA 3441 · flown by Envoy	6h 02m	84%	62%
United Details →	BOS 15:42 → EWR 17:09UA 1647	3h 39m Newark	EWR 20:48 → CMH 22:52UA 3692 · flown by Republic	7h 10m	94%	62%
American Details →	BOS 17:05 → PHL 18:49AA 3309	3h 01m Philadelphia	PHL 21:50 → CMH 23:41AA 4361 · flown by Republic	6h 36m	84%	60%
Delta Details →	BOS 16:00 → LGA 17:30DL 5726 · flown by Republic	2h 25m New York	LGA 19:55 → CMH 22:03DL 5681 · flown by Republic	6h 03m	88%	58%
Delta Details →	BOS 16:30 → ATL 19:38DL 399	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 22:03 → CMH 23:40DL 1459	7h 10m	90%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BOS 16:06 → DFW 19:38AA 1595	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:24 → CMH 23:54AA 398	7h 48m	7%	3%
American Details →	BOS 19:44 → DCA 21:38AA 1004	46m Washington	DCA 22:24 → CMH 23:51AA 3441 · flown by Envoy	4h 07m	3%	2%
United Details →	BOS 18:43 → ORD 20:40UA 1015	50m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → CMH 23:59UA 1492	5h 16m	2%	2%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON