Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:32 pm at Boston); 5 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Dulles, leaving 19:24, is the safest bet: 50% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 31% of the time.

Nonstops today


UA 1392 United Flight history →	BOS 17:35	IAH 20:55	38%	8%	0.3%	64%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BOS 17:00 → ORD 19:00UA 2040	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → IAH 00:34 +1UA 2665	8h 34m	94%	68%
United Details →	BOS 18:05 → IAD 20:20UA 3543 · flown by Republic	2h 00m Dulles	IAD 22:20 → IAH 00:51 +1UA 1463	7h 46m	85%	64%
United Details →	BOS 18:58 → EWR 20:26UA 1693	1h 58m Newark	EWR 22:24 → IAH 01:17 +1UA 3932	7h 19m	81%	52%
United Details →	BOS 16:57 → DEN 19:45UA 800	1h 25m Denver	DEN 21:10 → IAH 00:41 +1UA 1253	8h 44m	82%	51%
American Details →	BOS 16:41 → ORD 18:46AA 1479	2h 21m Chicago	ORD 21:07 → IAH 23:51AA 3144	8h 10m	77%	46%
American Details →	BOS 17:52 → DFW 21:20AA 1577	1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:56 → IAH 00:14 +1AA 3023	7h 22m	78%	28%
Delta Details →	BOS 17:55 → ATL 21:07DL 2464	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	7h 02m	79%	28%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BOS 18:16 → ORD 20:10AA 2837	57m Chicago	ORD 21:07 → IAH 23:51AA 3144	6h 35m	49%	29%
Alaska Details →	BOS 19:44 → SEA 23:07AS 1337	50m Seattle	SEA 23:57 → IAH 06:20 +1AS 398	11h 36m	34%	22%
Delta Details →	BOS 17:15 → DTW 19:39DL 1432	46m Detroit	DTW 20:25 → IAH 22:24DL 1633	6h 09m	31%	20%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON