Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 49–54% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 915 BWI 20:50 → CLT 22:30 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time Riskiest WN 914 BWI 15:45 → CLT 17:20 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 51% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 45% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 915 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:50	CLT 22:30	49%	7%	0.2%	56%
AA 3121 American	BWI 20:19	CLT 21:51	49%	8%	0.4%	no record
AA 1637 American Flight history →	BWI 20:18	CLT 21:55	50%	8%	0.4%	63%worse than usual
AA 1278 American	BWI 17:28	CLT 19:03	50%	9%	0.4%	no record
WN 4594 Southwest	BWI 20:36	CLT 22:07	53%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 914 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 15:45	CLT 17:20	54%	7%	0.2%	65%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON