tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:26 pm at Baltimore)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 17:32, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590 2h 35m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 7h 21m 90% 67%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552 7h 58m 97% 60%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:27 → DTW 19:09DL 2480 2h 31m Detroit DTW 21:40 → EWR 23:25DL 2609 5h 58m 92% 53%
JetBlueDetails → BWI 16:00 → FLL 18:41B6 2595 2h 14m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:55 → EWR 23:58B6 706 7h 58m 91% 48%
AmericanDetails → BWI 13:57 → CLT 15:39AA 846 3h 28m Charlotte CLT 19:07 → EWR 21:14AA 997 7h 17m 96% 48%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498 6h 46m 93% 41%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BWI 15:03 → IAH 17:19UA 2095 59m Houston IAH 18:18 → EWR 23:00UA 404 7h 57m 64% 38%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 20:08 → EWR 22:29DL 2527 5h 29m 65% 30%
FrontierDetails → BWI 19:07 → ATL 21:25F9 1079 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → EWR 01:03 +1F9 4602 5h 56m 58% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON