Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48%, against 38% on a calm day. Safest: WN 528 at 19:15, 46%.

Safest bet today WN 528 BWI 19:15 → RDU 20:35 · 46% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 161 BWI 22:25 → RDU 23:45 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Weather 48% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 528 Southwest	BWI 19:15	RDU 20:35	46%	11%	0.5%	no record
WN 3045 Southwest	BWI 21:55	RDU 23:16	47%	11%	0.5%	no record
WN 2807 Southwest	BWI 19:45	RDU 21:05	48%	12%	0.5%	no record
WN 161 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:25	RDU 23:45	50%	9%	0.5%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON