Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:36 pm at Baltimore); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 19:09, is the safest bet: 51% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 46% of the time.

Nonstops today


AS 379 Alaska Flight history →	BWI 18:07	SEA 21:00	47%	10%	0.6%	67%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BWI 17:35 → LAS 19:40WN 976	2h 50m Las Vegas	LAS 22:30 → SEA 01:15 +1WN 4196	10h 40m	94%	50%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	9h 59m	89%	39%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BWI 18:59 → SFO 21:50UA 504	55m San Francisco	SFO 22:45 → SEA 01:15 +1UA 5579 · flown by SkyWest	9h 16m	55%	33%
Delta Details →	BWI 18:20 → ATL 20:34DL 1267	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	8h 39m	53%	23%
American Details →	BWI 19:17 → DFW 21:42AA 1626	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487	8h 40m	46%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON