tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:36 pm at Cleveland); 4 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 3433 at 19:55, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
UA 3433 United flown by Republic Flight history → CLE 19:55 IAD 21:19 23% 6% 0.6% 74%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLE 18:05 → ORD 18:44UA 1673 2h 56m Chicago ORD 21:40 → IAD 00:45 +1UA 2766 6h 40m 94% 72%
UnitedDetails → CLE 19:40 → ORD 20:20UA 1084 1h 22m Chicago ORD 21:42 → IAD 00:35 +1UA 1922 4h 55m 82% 60%
UnitedDetails → CLE 16:38 → DEN 18:03UA 486 1h 10m Denver DEN 19:13 → IAD 00:45 +1UA 1412 8h 07m 81% 57%
AmericanDetails → CLE 19:31 → CLT 21:16AA 1679 1h 29m Charlotte CLT 22:45 → IAD 00:10 +1AA 1242 4h 39m 78% 53%
UnitedDetails → CLE 17:42 → EWR 19:30UA 3633 · flown by Republic 2h 20m Newark EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784 5h 37m 94% 49%
DeltaDetails → CLE 18:37 → ATL 20:43DL 880 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 6h 04m 89% 43%
FrontierDetails → CLE 17:51 → ATL 20:06F9 4209 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 22:26 → IAD 00:30 +1F9 3692 6h 39m 82% 26%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CLE 19:31 → CLT 21:16AA 1679 1h 20m Charlotte CLT 22:36 → IAD 00:07 +1AA 2608 4h 36m 71% 50%
UnitedDetails → CLE 19:08 → EWR 20:45UA 554 1h 05m Newark EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784 4h 11m 62% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON