Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 53%, against 37% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1385 at 11:25, 35%.

Safest bet today WN 1385 DAL 11:25 → LGA 15:49 · 35% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2861 DFW 14:45 → EWR 19:30 · 70% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Weather 53% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 17 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1385 Southwest	DAL 11:25	LGA 15:49	35%	9%	1.4%	no record
AA 3289 American Flight history →	DFW 11:30	LGA 16:02	42%	10%	0.9%	52%
AA 2327 American Flight history →	DFW 11:43	LGA 16:15	43%	10%	1.0%	38%
UA 1439 United Flight history →	DFW 20:27	EWR 00:59	44%	10%	0.6%	68%worse than usual
WN 4478 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:25	LGA 16:50	44%	16%	1.4%	32%
DL 856 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:15	LGA 17:53	45%	12%	0.6%	64%
DL 846 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:59	LGA 23:33	45%	13%	0.6%	59%
AA 481 American Flight history →	DFW 11:46	JFK 16:30	45%	14%	0.7%	50%
WN 1312 Southwest	DAL 18:05	LGA 22:30	45%	17%	1.3%	no record
AA 2708 American Flight history →	DFW 19:13	LGA 23:45	46%	12%	1.0%	55%
AA 1375 American	DFW 19:01	LGA 23:31	47%	12%	0.9%	no record
WN 3526 Southwest	DAL 19:05	LGA 23:28	48%	19%	1.2%	no record
AA 1049 American Flight history →	DFW 13:10	JFK 17:56	49%	20%	0.7%	58%
AA 1058 American	DFW 13:11	JFK 17:47	49%	19%	0.6%	no record
AA 672 American Flight history →	DFW 12:33	LGA 17:05	51%	10%	1.0%	59%worse than usual
AA 618 American Flight history →	DFW 18:29	EWR 23:12	52%	24%	0.8%	56%
AA 2388 American Flight history →	DFW 12:30	LGA 17:05	52%	11%	1.0%	42%
AA 1248 American Flight history →	DFW 18:31	JFK 23:05	53%	21%	0.7%	64%worse than usual
AA 1203 American Flight history →	DFW 17:39	JFK 22:30	54%	23%	0.6%	46%
WN 667 Southwest	DAL 15:55	LGA 20:20	54%	19%	1.3%	no record
WN 1311 Southwest	DAL 16:05	LGA 20:30	55%	22%	1.2%	no record
AA 1535 American Flight history →	DFW 13:54	LGA 18:28	55%	15%	0.9%	58%worse than usual
AA 813 American Flight history →	DFW 12:06	EWR 16:45	56%	19%	0.8%	69%worse than usual
AA 1806 American	DFW 14:06	LGA 18:47	56%	15%	0.8%	no record
UA 1574 United Flight history →	DFW 13:00	EWR 17:37	58%	19%	0.6%	78%worse than usual
DL 869 Delta Flight history →	DFW 16:10	LGA 20:51	58%	14%	0.5%	69%worse than usual
AA 578 American Flight history →	DFW 16:13	JFK 21:00	58%	27%	0.6%	57%worse than usual
AA 2434 American	DFW 15:06	LGA 19:47	60%	13%	0.8%	no record
AA 610 American Flight history →	DFW 14:48	LGA 19:22	60%	15%	0.9%	54%worse than usual
AA 2570 American Flight history →	DFW 17:55	LGA 22:25	61%	14%	0.7%	64%worse than usual
UA 2461 United	DFW 17:02	EWR 21:43	62%	27%	0.6%	no record
AA 2513 American Flight history →	DFW 16:49	LGA 21:29	65%	17%	0.8%	56%worse than usual
UA 402 United Flight history →	DFW 16:52	EWR 21:27	65%	29%	0.6%	52%worse than usual
F9 3424 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:11	LGA 19:45	68%	23%	1.8%	61%worse than usual
AA 2861 American Flight history →	DFW 14:45	EWR 19:30	70%	30%	0.7%	56%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON