tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:23 pm at Washington); 3 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, B6 23 at 18:00, with a 50% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
B6 23 JetBlue Flight history → DCA 18:00 PBI 20:35 50% 15% 5.0% 61%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach West Palm Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182 3h 19m Charlotte CLT 22:56 → PBI 00:51 +1AA 1764 7h 01m 96% 50%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:23 → CLT 17:10AA 804 3h 40m Charlotte CLT 20:50 → PBI 22:44AA 1912 7h 21m 92% 47%
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065 6h 21m 84% 37%
UnitedDetails → DCA 15:10 → EWR 16:32UA 4560 · flown by GoJet 3h 47m Newark EWR 20:19 → PBI 23:28UA 2650 8h 18m 93% 34%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 20:30 → PBI 22:22DL 1606 6h 22m 89% 34%
JetBlueDetails → DCA 17:00 → BOS 18:41B6 2954 2h 54m Boston BOS 21:35 → PBI 00:53 +1B6 2421 7h 53m 87% 31%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 53m Atlanta ATL 18:59 → PBI 20:51DL 1058 4h 51m 53% 21%
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:24 → PHL 18:38AA 5406 · flown by PSA 1h 12m Philadelphia PHL 19:50 → PBI 22:40AA 3145 5h 16m 46% 19%
UnitedDetails → DCA 17:55 → EWR 19:28UA 4180 · flown by GoJet 51m Newark EWR 20:19 → PBI 23:28UA 2650 5h 33m 51% 18%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON