tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:58 am at Dallas-Fort Worth); 9 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Today: AA 336 at 12:27 is the safest bet, 40% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 46–54%.

Safest bet today AA 336 DFW 12:27 → PHX 13:05 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest F9 4655 DFW 22:23 → PHX 22:59 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time
Against a calm day 49% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 49% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.
AA 336 American Flight history → DFW 12:27 PHX 13:05 40% 13% 0.6% 72%worse than usual
AA 1685 American Flight history → DFW 12:33 PHX 13:00 42% 14% 0.6% 76%worse than usual
AA 1931 American DFW 23:00 PHX 23:36 46% 15% 0.6% no record
AA 1133 American Flight history → DFW 20:30 PHX 21:02 46% 16% 0.8% 64%worse than usual
AA 1548 American Flight history → DFW 13:49 PHX 14:28 47% 19% 0.5% 92%worse than usual
AA 3239 American Flight history → DFW 21:29 PHX 22:00 47% 16% 0.6% 61%
AA 2113 American Flight history → DFW 13:40 PHX 14:08 48% 19% 0.5% 67%worse than usual
AA 2108 American Flight history → DFW 14:30 PHX 14:57 48% 21% 0.5% 60%
AA 818 American Flight history → DFW 19:14 PHX 19:43 48% 18% 0.5% 50%
AA 2319 American Flight history → DFW 22:59 PHX 23:28 49% 17% 0.6% 37%
AA 3110 American DFW 20:16 PHX 20:53 49% 17% 0.7% no record
AA 1155 American Flight history → DFW 16:37 PHX 17:09 50% 15% 0.4% 66%worse than usual
AA 2047 American Flight history → DFW 17:39 PHX 18:17 50% 16% 0.4% 76%worse than usual
AA 2942 American Flight history → DFW 21:27 PHX 22:04 50% 16% 0.5% 84%worse than usual
AA 1648 American Flight history → DFW 17:55 PHX 18:27 51% 17% 0.4% 53%
F9 3283 Frontier Flight history → DFW 21:01 PHX 21:42 51% 25% 1.2% 80%worse than usual
AA 3232 American DFW 18:48 PHX 19:26 52% 19% 0.5% no record
AA 1232 American DFW 16:39 PHX 17:20 53% 16% 0.4% no record
AA 554 American Flight history → DFW 15:34 PHX 15:59 54% 19% 0.4% 76%worse than usual
F9 4655 Frontier Flight history → DFW 22:23 PHX 22:59 54% 27% 1.3% 76%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON