Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 43%, against 26% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2662 at 12:25, 38%.

Safest bet today UA 2662 IAH 12:25 → MCO 16:04 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 4978 IAH 19:23 → MCO 23:05 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Weather 43% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2662 United Flight history →	IAH 12:25	MCO 16:04	38%	8%	0.5%	86%worse than usual
WN 1062 Southwest	HOU 18:00	MCO 21:23	38%	13%	0.5%	no record
UA 2323 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	MCO 23:22	38%	14%	0.6%	77%worse than usual
WN 4408 Southwest	HOU 18:30	MCO 21:55	38%	18%	0.7%	no record
WN 2083 Southwest	HOU 20:40	MCO 00:03	39%	13%	0.7%	no record
WN 5066 Southwest	HOU 13:50	MCO 17:20	40%	14%	0.4%	no record
WN 2612 Southwest	HOU 14:33	MCO 17:57	42%	15%	0.4%	no record
UA 496 United Flight history →	IAH 14:36	MCO 18:14	42%	14%	0.5%	81%worse than usual
WN 1194 Southwest	HOU 16:50	MCO 20:20	42%	15%	0.5%	no record
UA 2451 United Flight history →	IAH 18:26	MCO 21:58	42%	16%	0.6%	80%worse than usual
UA 1571 United Flight history →	IAH 17:09	MCO 20:48	47%	16%	0.5%	82%worse than usual
F9 1418 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 13:16	MCO 16:53	50%	23%	1.1%	77%worse than usual
F9 2418 Frontier	IAH 20:22	MCO 23:53	50%	24%	1.2%	no record
F9 4978 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 19:23	MCO 23:05	54%	27%	1.1%	66%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON