Today: WN 4784 at 11:05 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–54%.

Safest bet today WN 4784 HOU 11:05 → MIA 14:35 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1462 IAH 14:05 → MIA 17:46 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4784 Southwest	HOU 11:05	MIA 14:35	20%	4%	0.3%	no record
UA 462 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	FLL 18:07	26%	10%	0.2%	84%worse than usual
WN 4608 Southwest	HOU 13:55	FLL 17:29	26%	6%	0.1%	no record
UA 1956 United Flight history →	IAH 18:26	FLL 22:04	26%	8%	0.2%	77%
UA 277 United Flight history →	IAH 16:20	FLL 20:07	26%	9%	0.2%	85%worse than usual
UA 1424 United	IAH 14:52	FLL 18:41	28%	11%	0.2%	no record
UA 1706 United Flight history →	IAH 12:06	FLL 15:53	28%	10%	0.2%	64%
UA 1982 United Flight history →	IAH 11:57	FLL 15:34	29%	10%	0.2%	84%worse than usual
WN 4859 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 21:10	MIA 00:40	30%	10%	0.6%	27%
WN 2032 Southwest	HOU 20:30	FLL 00:03	31%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 4825 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:40	FLL 00:10	31%	8%	0.2%	54%
AA 1347 American Flight history →	IAH 10:54	MIA 14:37	31%	9%	0.6%	87%worse than usual
WN 4660 Southwest	HOU 15:10	MIA 18:45	33%	10%	0.3%	no record
WN 3577 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 15:55	FLL 19:25	35%	6%	0.1%	56%
AA 1918 American Flight history →	IAH 11:20	MIA 15:01	35%	8%	0.5%	57%
UA 410 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	MIA 15:47	35%	7%	0.5%	84%worse than usual
UA 1829 United Flight history →	IAH 19:01	MIA 22:40	45%	11%	0.7%	78%worse than usual
UA 2740 United Flight history →	IAH 16:50	MIA 20:33	46%	11%	0.5%	75%worse than usual
F9 1068 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 20:37	MIA 00:31	46%	16%	1.4%	67%worse than usual
AA 1931 American Flight history →	IAH 18:12	MIA 21:50	46%	14%	0.5%	42%
MQ 3358 Envoy	IAH 17:51	MIA 21:30	48%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 1345 United Flight history →	IAH 12:25	PBI 15:56	48%	18%	7.5%	74%worse than usual
AA 678 American Flight history →	IAH 16:43	MIA 20:23	50%	11%	0.5%	57%
B6 2780 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 13:00	FLL 16:23	53%	17%	0.5%	35%
B6 2180 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 16:42	FLL 20:05	54%	19%	0.4%	43%
F9 1462 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 14:05	MIA 17:46	58%	18%	1.2%	73%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON