Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:36 pm at Dulles); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 293 at 17:53, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 293 United Flight history →	IAD 17:53	JAX 20:08	35%	14%	1.3%	76%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	IAD 19:10 → CLT 20:40AA 5447 · flown by PSA	2h 21m Charlotte	CLT 23:01 → JAX 00:26 +1AA 1302	5h 16m	93%	52%
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10UA 1831	2h 12m Newark	EWR 21:22 → JAX 23:59UA 2335	6h 17m	82%	39%
Delta Details →	IAD 18:07 → ATL 20:14DL 1695	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 21:45 → JAX 23:02DL 1001	4h 55m	76%	26%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAD 20:22 → CLT 21:55AA 1450	1h 06m Charlotte	CLT 23:01 → JAX 00:26 +1AA 1302	4h 04m	55%	31%
Delta Details →	IAD 18:07 → ATL 20:14DL 1695	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 21:33 → JAX 22:50DL 2315	4h 43m	71%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON