Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 62%, against 46% on a calm day. Safest: AA 3320 at 19:44, 51%.

Safest bet today AA 3320 LAS 19:44 → PHX 21:05 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest WN 2314 LAS 19:45 → PHX 21:00 · 69% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Weather 62% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 46% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 22 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3320 American Flight history →	LAS 19:44	PHX 21:05	51%	25%	0.4%	78%worse than usual
AA 1022 American Flight history →	LAS 20:05	PHX 21:18	54%	30%	0.4%	40%
WN 3126 Southwest	LAS 22:55	PHX 00:15	58%	20%	0.4%	no record
WN 1149 Southwest	LAS 21:17	PHX 22:34	62%	22%	0.4%	no record
WN 1756 Southwest	LAS 22:37	PHX 23:55	64%	19%	0.4%	no record
F9 1896 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 21:48	PHX 23:05	64%	30%	1.0%	75%worse than usual
WN 3328 Southwest	LAS 18:45	PHX 20:00	67%	27%	0.4%	no record
WN 1797 Southwest	LAS 19:41	PHX 20:58	69%	22%	0.4%	no record
WN 2314 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 19:45	PHX 21:00	69%	23%	0.4%	49%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON