Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:49 pm at Kansas City); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 28–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1856 Southwest	MCI 18:31	BWI 22:06	28%	7%	0.4%	no record
WN 1399 Southwest Flight history →	MCI 18:15	BWI 21:45	31%	7%	0.3%	56%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Kansas City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MCI 17:45 → MDW 19:10WN 2572	2h 11m Chicago	MDW 21:21 → BWI 00:19 +1WN 1588	5h 34m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	MCI 16:04 → MSP 17:40DL 1613	2h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918	6h 09m	100%	72%
United Details →	MCI 17:37 → ORD 19:30UA 2770	1h 50m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → BWI 00:28 +1UA 675	5h 51m	90%	67%
United Details →	MCI 15:16 → ORD 17:05UA 2792	3h 04m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → BWI 23:17UA 220	7h 01m	96%	65%
Southwest Details →	MCI 17:30 → BNA 19:05WN 4269	2h 00m Nashville	BNA 21:05 → BWI 23:55WN 468	5h 25m	93%	58%
Southwest Details →	MCI 15:15 → DAL 16:50WN 1323	3h 51m Dallas	DAL 20:41 → BWI 00:44 +1WN 247	8h 29m	100%	53%
Delta Details →	MCI 15:38 → ATL 18:48DL 1443	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590	8h 01m	97%	52%
Southwest Details →	MCI 15:40 → HOU 17:50WN 2555	2h 46m Houston	HOU 20:36 → BWI 00:51 +1WN 4936	8h 11m	100%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MCI 15:16 → ORD 17:05UA 2792	46m Chicago	ORD 17:51 → BWI 20:51UA 1557	4h 35m	67%	42%
United Details →	MCI 18:41 → ORD 20:33UA 303	47m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → BWI 00:28 +1UA 675	4h 47m	42%	31%
Delta Details →	MCI 18:40 → ATL 21:54DL 1470	51m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590	4h 59m	55%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON