tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:06 pm at Orlando); 18 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 68%, against 48% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2952 at 19:22, 60%.

Safest bet today AA 2952 MCO 19:22 → PHL 22:05 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time Riskiest F9 2508 MCO 21:41 → PHL 00:29 · 74% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time
Weather 68% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 48% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 18 flights that already left today are not shown.
AA 2952 American Flight history → MCO 19:22 PHL 22:05 60% 30% 0.6% 59%worse than usual
AA 2076 American Flight history → MCO 19:59 PHL 22:43 60% 30% 0.6% 56%worse than usual
WN 4892 Southwest MCO 21:15 PHL 23:55 67% 25% 0.4% no record
F9 4170 Frontier Flight history → MCO 22:16 PHL 00:51 69% 38% 2.1% 72%worse than usual
F9 4404 Frontier Flight history → MCO 19:18 PHL 22:06 72% 49% 1.4% 59%worse than usual
F9 1808 Frontier Flight history → MCO 20:16 PHL 22:55 74% 49% 1.3% 53%worse than usual
F9 2508 Frontier Flight history → MCO 21:41 PHL 00:29 74% 41% 1.5% 48%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON