Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 40%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2617 at 10:15, 21%.

Safest bet today UA 2617 LGA 10:15 → IAH 13:06 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest B6 281 JFK 14:29 → IAH 17:19 · 62% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Weather 40% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2617 United Flight history →	LGA 10:15	IAH 13:06	21%	4%	0.6%	86%
DL 2099 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:50	IAH 13:32	25%	4%	0.6%	76%
UA 692 United Flight history →	LGA 12:31	IAH 15:22	26%	5%	0.6%	78%
UA 344 United	LGA 12:42	IAH 15:38	26%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2111 Southwest	LGA 11:20	HOU 13:31	28%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 556 United Flight history →	EWR 10:53	IAH 13:38	31%	4%	0.4%	77%
UA 2204 United Flight history →	EWR 12:36	IAH 15:34	31%	5%	0.4%	89%worse than usual
UA 2690 United Flight history →	EWR 14:00	IAH 16:58	32%	7%	0.4%	81%worse than usual
UA 1830 United	EWR 13:54	IAH 16:44	35%	7%	0.4%	no record
UA 2674 United Flight history →	LGA 14:00	IAH 17:01	35%	7%	0.7%	64%
DL 2930 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:50	IAH 16:44	37%	6%	0.6%	73%
UA 2815 United Flight history →	EWR 15:40	IAH 18:46	39%	9%	0.3%	69%
UA 2189 United Flight history →	LGA 20:17	IAH 23:15	40%	15%	1.1%	69%
UA 1794 United Flight history →	LGA 15:38	IAH 18:46	40%	9%	0.6%	62%
UA 2133 United	LGA 20:22	IAH 23:18	40%	15%	1.1%	no record
UA 1179 United	LGA 18:05	IAH 21:11	42%	13%	1.1%	no record
WN 2498 Southwest	LGA 13:30	HOU 16:20	44%	10%	1.0%	no record
WN 941 Southwest	LGA 14:01	HOU 16:48	46%	11%	1.0%	no record
UA 1066 United Flight history →	LGA 17:54	IAH 20:52	46%	14%	1.0%	50%
UA 2782 United Flight history →	EWR 17:54	IAH 20:55	48%	14%	0.6%	69%worse than usual
DL 2109 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:29	IAH 21:44	48%	14%	1.1%	65%worse than usual
UA 265 United Flight history →	EWR 19:45	IAH 22:38	49%	14%	0.7%	72%worse than usual
UA 2127 United Flight history →	EWR 19:46	IAH 22:39	50%	15%	0.7%	68%worse than usual
UA 2425 United Flight history →	EWR 20:50	IAH 23:43	50%	21%	1.6%	75%worse than usual
WN 2460 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 17:35	HOU 20:50	58%	16%	1.4%	62%worse than usual
WN 1146 Southwest	LGA 17:31	HOU 20:20	60%	19%	1.4%	no record
B6 281 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 14:29	IAH 17:19	62%	25%	0.6%	51%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON