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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:33 am at South Florida); 29 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 87 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44%, against 30% on a calm day. Safest: AA 3256 at 09:56, 17%.

Safest bet today AA 3256 MIA 09:56 → LGA 12:59 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest B6 2702 FLL 18:36 → JFK 21:32 · 67% chance 15+ min late
Weather 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 29 flights that already left today are not shown.

AA 3256 American Flight history → MIA 09:56 LGA 12:59 17% 3% 0.7% 80%
AA 2424 American MIA 09:57 LGA 12:57 18% 4% 0.7% no record
AA 1052 American Flight history → MIA 09:55 JFK 13:04 20% 4% 0.7% 83%
DL 2526 Delta Flight history → PBI 10:44 LGA 13:33 22% 6% 4.3% 76%
UA 2387 United Flight history → FLL 09:55 EWR 12:54 23% 4% 0.6% 83%
DL 2346 Delta Flight history → MIA 11:29 LGA 14:34 25% 8% 0.6% 70%
DL 1498 Delta MIA 11:36 LGA 14:33 26% 9% 0.6% no record
AA 2062 American MIA 10:23 JFK 13:20 26% 8% 0.8% no record
UA 2433 United Flight history → MIA 11:22 EWR 14:26 28% 10% 0.5% 94%worse than usual
UA 210 United Flight history → FLL 11:11 EWR 14:15 28% 6% 0.7% 90%worse than usual
B6 1154 JetBlue Flight history → PBI 10:44 JFK 13:34 30% 8% 2.3% 72%
UA 2080 United Flight history → MIA 11:12 EWR 14:23 31% 10% 0.6% 79%worse than usual
AA 2484 American MIA 12:43 LGA 15:45 31% 8% 1.0% no record
DL 1422 Delta Flight history → FLL 11:12 JFK 13:59 33% 8% 0.7% 72%
AA 4475 American flown by Republic Flight history → PBI 15:08 LGA 18:09 33% 14% 4.8% 69%
DL 2396 Delta Flight history → PBI 15:20 LGA 18:22 33% 11% 4.8% 64%
AA 3229 American Flight history → MIA 12:51 LGA 16:00 33% 10% 1.0% 47%
UA 1197 United Flight history → PBI 11:04 EWR 14:00 33% 9% 3.0% 89%worse than usual
DL 1520 Delta Flight history → MIA 11:25 JFK 14:31 35% 11% 0.5% 85%worse than usual
UA 1611 United Flight history → FLL 12:46 EWR 15:50 35% 8% 0.7% 78%worse than usual
B6 872 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 09:56 LGA 12:14 35% 6% 0.8% 74%
DL 2465 Delta Flight history → FLL 11:29 LGA 14:24 36% 8% 0.7% 70%
DL 1473 Delta MIA 11:29 JFK 14:23 38% 13% 0.5% no record
DL 2500 Delta Flight history → MIA 19:59 JFK 23:21 38% 19% 0.6% 53%
DL 2466 Delta Flight history → PBI 19:37 LGA 22:33 38% 12% 3.9% 50%
UA 1187 United Flight history → PBI 19:30 EWR 22:30 39% 18% 3.1% 68%
DL 2623 Delta Flight history → PBI 11:59 JFK 14:54 39% 9% 4.8% 75%worse than usual
DL 1638 Delta Flight history → PBI 19:59 JFK 22:59 40% 14% 3.9% 56%
DL 1538 Delta Flight history → MIA 15:29 LGA 18:45 42% 12% 0.7% 72%worse than usual
AA 1357 American Flight history → MIA 19:50 JFK 23:01 42% 16% 0.9% 56%
AA 2490 American Flight history → FLL 12:04 LGA 15:04 43% 9% 0.7% 68%worse than usual
DL 305 Delta Flight history → FLL 15:29 JFK 18:48 43% 15% 0.7% 72%worse than usual
AA 1135 American FLL 12:12 LGA 15:17 43% 9% 0.7% no record
DL 1419 Delta Flight history → FLL 19:59 JFK 23:05 44% 14% 0.6% 59%
AA 716 American Flight history → MIA 14:22 LGA 17:29 44% 11% 1.0% 54%
AA 552 American MIA 14:50 LGA 17:48 44% 10% 1.0% no record
B6 2102 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 11:12 JFK 14:14 44% 22% 1.3% 64%
UA 353 United Flight history → PBI 13:12 EWR 16:13 44% 15% 4.3% 74%worse than usual
AA 322 American Flight history → MIA 19:48 EWR 22:53 45% 17% 1.0% 46%
AA 2945 American Flight history → MIA 15:22 LGA 18:29 45% 12% 1.1% 48%
DL 1514 Delta Flight history → MIA 15:17 JFK 18:50 46% 20% 0.6% 73%worse than usual
AA 1823 American Flight history → MIA 13:31 EWR 16:39 46% 14% 0.9% 79%worse than usual
AA 2262 American MIA 19:55 LGA 22:56 46% 13% 1.0% no record
AA 2899 American Flight history → MIA 13:54 JFK 16:51 46% 17% 1.1% 61%
AA 897 American MIA 15:28 LGA 18:27 46% 10% 1.1% no record
AA 642 American Flight history → MIA 14:00 JFK 17:18 46% 19% 1.2% 71%worse than usual
DL 1794 Delta MIA 19:49 JFK 22:44 47% 19% 0.5% no record
DL 2300 Delta Flight history → MIA 19:40 LGA 22:59 47% 15% 0.6% 57%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history → FLL 15:05 LGA 18:19 47% 11% 0.7% 68%worse than usual
DL 701 Delta Flight history → FLL 19:59 LGA 23:02 47% 14% 0.7% 35%
UA 460 United FLL 14:40 EWR 17:48 47% 13% 0.8% no record
AA 952 American Flight history → MIA 16:25 LGA 19:29 47% 14% 1.2% 53%
B6 602 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 11:57 JFK 14:54 47% 24% 1.3% 66%worse than usual
UA 1800 United Flight history → FLL 15:52 EWR 18:59 48% 15% 0.7% 61%
DL 2321 Delta Flight history → FLL 19:33 LGA 22:27 48% 15% 0.7% 62%
B6 272 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 11:52 LGA 14:45 48% 16% 0.9% 58%
AA 2054 American Flight history → MIA 19:00 LGA 22:05 48% 15% 1.1% 42%
UA 1102 United MIA 13:26 EWR 16:29 49% 19% 0.7% no record
B6 1054 JetBlue Flight history → PBI 14:08 JFK 17:06 49% 22% 4.8% 87%worse than usual
UA 279 United Flight history → FLL 17:44 EWR 20:55 49% 15% 0.7% 69%worse than usual
AA 2172 American MIA 16:42 LGA 19:47 49% 15% 1.3% no record
B6 1902 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 22:15 JFK 01:18 50% 33% 3.2% 64%worse than usual
AA 1202 American Flight history → MIA 16:03 JFK 19:15 50% 19% 1.2% 55%
UA 1395 United Flight history → PBI 17:15 EWR 20:15 50% 21% 3.1% 61%worse than usual
AA 2008 American Flight history → MIA 22:00 EWR 00:59 51% 13% 2.4% 62%worse than usual
AA 1922 American Flight history → MIA 18:33 JFK 21:45 51% 21% 1.0% 61%worse than usual
UA 2691 United Flight history → MIA 17:22 EWR 20:37 52% 24% 1.0% 56%
AA 2600 American MIA 18:51 JFK 21:50 52% 21% 1.0% no record
AA 2124 American MIA 16:31 JFK 19:35 52% 23% 1.3% no record
AA 1389 American Flight history → MIA 20:40 LGA 23:44 52% 16% 2.2% 58%worse than usual
AA 944 American Flight history → MIA 21:51 JFK 00:59 52% 19% 2.3% 64%worse than usual
AA 3128 American Flight history → MIA 17:50 LGA 20:58 53% 17% 1.3% 38%
UA 2029 United Flight history → MIA 20:36 EWR 23:55 54% 22% 2.1% 72%worse than usual
AA 2933 American Flight history → MIA 14:40 EWR 17:44 55% 14% 1.0% 62%worse than usual
AA 2271 American Flight history → MIA 18:13 LGA 21:17 55% 17% 1.1% 57%worse than usual
B6 1962 JetBlue Flight history → PBI 18:30 LGA 21:18 55% 23% 3.0% 64%worse than usual
B6 144 JetBlue Flight history → PBI 18:08 EWR 21:00 58% 27% 3.1% 74%worse than usual
AA 2968 American FLL 17:37 LGA 20:41 58% 15% 1.0% no record
AA 2808 American Flight history → FLL 17:49 LGA 20:49 58% 19% 1.0% 33%
B6 572 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:00 LGA 22:59 60% 21% 1.0% 55%worse than usual
B6 706 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:55 EWR 23:58 60% 28% 1.9% 51%worse than usual
B6 1172 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 18:35 LGA 21:35 63% 29% 0.9% 54%worse than usual
B6 106 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 18:40 EWR 21:43 63% 25% 1.0% 57%worse than usual
B6 472 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 16:51 LGA 19:50 63% 22% 1.2% 74%worse than usual
B6 672 JetBlue FLL 18:37 LGA 21:36 64% 24% 1.0% no record
B6 1802 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 18:35 JFK 21:39 67% 30% 1.0% 61%worse than usual
B6 2702 JetBlue FLL 18:36 JFK 21:32 67% 29% 1.0% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON