Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:30 pm at San Francisco); 12 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Today: UA 406 at 21:15 is the safest bet, 28% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29–50%.

Safest bet today UA 406 SFO 21:15 → LAS 23:10 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest WN 1044 SFO 16:05 → LAS 17:50 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 406 United Flight history →	SFO 21:15	LAS 23:10	28%	8%	0.2%	77%
UA 1777 United	SFO 12:31	LAS 14:20	29%	8%	0.2%	no record
UA 2400 United Flight history →	SFO 22:50	LAS 00:44	29%	8%	0.3%	81%
AS 468 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 21:59	LAS 23:42	31%	8%	0.4%	40%
UA 1995 United Flight history →	SFO 19:37	LAS 21:27	31%	8%	0.2%	81%worse than usual
UA 751 United Flight history →	SFO 17:37	LAS 19:27	32%	11%	0.2%	72%
UA 2855 United Flight history →	SFO 14:21	LAS 16:11	33%	10%	0.2%	62%
AS 1400 Alaska	SFO 17:59	LAS 19:34	33%	9%	0.3%	no record
F9 4402 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 22:17	LAS 00:04	35%	19%	1.1%	65%
UA 3774 United	SFO 13:49	LAS 15:40	36%	10%	0.2%	no record
AS 776 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 13:45	LAS 15:21	36%	8%	0.4%	63%
UA 8152 United	SFO 14:12	LAS 15:52	39%	11%	0.2%	no record
F9 4156 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 21:00	LAS 22:48	39%	23%	1.0%	55%
WN 3779 Southwest	SFO 21:11	LAS 22:49	42%	12%	0.2%	no record
WN 1860 Southwest	SFO 18:50	LAS 20:35	45%	11%	0.1%	no record
F9 2486 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 14:20	LAS 16:06	45%	18%	1.0%	68%worse than usual
WN 2874 Southwest	SFO 14:26	LAS 16:02	46%	11%	0.1%	no record
F9 1850 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 15:43	LAS 17:30	46%	20%	1.0%	69%worse than usual
WN 1044 Southwest	SFO 16:05	LAS 17:50	50%	14%	0.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON