Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:05 am at San Francisco); 10 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Today: DL 1412 at 13:30 is the safest bet, 33% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–58%.

Safest bet today DL 1412 SFO 13:30 → SEA 15:47 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AS 1340 SFO 17:38 → SEA 19:40 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1412 Delta Flight history →	SFO 13:30	SEA 15:47	33%	11%	0.4%	77%worse than usual
UA 5579 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 22:45	SEA 01:15	35%	13%	0.9%	72%
UA 1007 United Flight history →	SFO 20:55	SEA 23:20	38%	11%	0.2%	66%
DL 3991 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:59	SEA 23:17	38%	12%	0.6%	67%
UA 2279 United Flight history →	SFO 16:27	SEA 18:47	42%	11%	0.2%	76%worse than usual
AS 591 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 20:28	SEA 22:41	42%	11%	0.7%	72%worse than usual
AS 758 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 20:46	SEA 22:47	45%	11%	0.7%	73%worse than usual
AS 316 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 21:46	SEA 23:59	45%	11%	0.9%	69%worse than usual
UA 2744 United Flight history →	SFO 12:12	SEA 14:32	46%	11%	0.2%	72%worse than usual
DL 3707 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 17:29	SEA 19:44	46%	13%	0.4%	68%worse than usual
UA 1097 United	SFO 18:46	SEA 21:15	46%	14%	0.2%	no record
OO 5891 SkyWest	SFO 14:00	SEA 16:29	46%	13%	0.4%	no record
AS 656 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 13:48	SEA 15:51	49%	14%	0.7%	57%
AS 68 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 16:20	SEA 18:22	49%	10%	0.7%	87%worse than usual
AS 790 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 14:20	SEA 16:31	50%	12%	0.7%	73%worse than usual
OO 5842 SkyWest	SFO 14:08	SEA 16:17	52%	14%	0.4%	no record
AS 630 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 15:14	SEA 17:16	55%	11%	0.7%	21%
AS 1340 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 17:38	SEA 19:40	58%	13%	0.7%	69%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON