tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:17 am at San Jose)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 62% (calm day: 48%). Best bet: American via DFW, leaving 14:36, 21% on time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2078 United Flight history → SJC 13:10 IAH 19:05 37% 9% 0.3% 78%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SJC 18:45 → SEA 21:00AS 481 2h 57m Seattle SEA 23:57 → IAH 06:20 +1AS 398 9h 35m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → SJC 14:59 → LAX 16:24DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 2h 11m Los Angeles LAX 18:35 → IAH 23:59DL 1287 7h 00m 92% 58%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:40 → SLC 16:33DL 1254 1h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514 6h 10m 80% 58%
UnitedDetails → SJC 14:32 → DEN 18:11UA 719 2h 59m Denver DEN 21:10 → IAH 00:41 +1UA 1253 8h 09m 91% 52%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 9h 17m 97% 49%
AmericanDetails → SJC 14:36 → DFW 20:03AA 2834 2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:55 → IAH 00:14 +1AA 3023 7h 38m 94% 39%
AmericanDetails → SJC 11:47 → DFW 17:30AA 2572 3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24AA 2209 8h 37m 94% 37%
AmericanDetails → SJC 14:23 → DFW 20:04AA 436 2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:48 → IAH 23:58AA 1914 7h 35m 84% 31%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SJC 14:32 → DEN 18:11UA 719 1h 24m Denver DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475 6h 34m 74% 41%
AmericanDetails → SJC 14:23 → DFW 20:04AA 436 1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24AA 2209 6h 01m 51% 20%
AmericanDetails → SJC 12:09 → DFW 17:50AA 2046 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392 5h 45m 6% 2%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON