Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 798 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 798 CLT 07:00 → EWR 08:59 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1811 CLT 16:43 → EWR 18:39 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 798 United Flight history →	CLT 07:00	EWR 08:59	7%	3%	0.8%	90%
YX 3427 Republic	CLT 09:52	EWR 11:46	11%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 3448 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 11:10	EWR 13:16	13%	3%	0.9%	90%
AA 1782 American Flight history →	CLT 08:00	EWR 09:59	13%	3%	1.2%	86%
YX 3649 Republic	CLT 10:57	EWR 12:51	13%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 1697 American Flight history →	CLT 10:35	EWR 12:22	16%	4%	1.2%	87%
AA 1707 American Flight history →	CLT 07:51	EWR 09:38	16%	3%	1.0%	87%
AA 1819 American Flight history →	CLT 10:43	EWR 12:37	17%	4%	1.3%	87%
YX 3627 Republic	CLT 13:28	EWR 15:38	20%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 3468 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 17:52	EWR 20:00	25%	5%	1.0%	68%
UA 3450 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 14:35	EWR 16:40	25%	4%	0.9%	84%
UA 3456 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 15:55	EWR 18:01	27%	5%	0.9%	77%
AA 1071 American Flight history →	CLT 18:21	EWR 20:30	37%	9%	1.0%	68%
AA 2794 American Flight history →	CLT 20:06	EWR 22:12	37%	9%	1.2%	61%
AA 1811 American Flight history →	CLT 16:43	EWR 18:39	41%	8%	1.3%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON