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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 46 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2215 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–46%.

Safest bet that day UA 2215 DFW 05:52 → EWR 10:06 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3424 DFW 17:18 → LGA 22:00 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time
Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 2215 United DFW 05:52 EWR 10:06 6% 3% 0.7% no record
UA 1847 United Flight history → DFW 06:00 EWR 10:29 6% 2% 0.7% 89%
DL 454 Delta Flight history → DFW 08:15 JFK 12:59 7% 3% 0.7% 90%
UA 1219 United Flight history → DFW 07:15 EWR 11:51 8% 3% 0.7% 94%
WN 2182 Southwest Flight history → DAL 06:15 LGA 10:30 10% 2% 0.7% 77%
WN 4827 Southwest DAL 06:21 LGA 10:38 10% 2% 0.8% no record
AA 2925 American Flight history → DFW 06:00 LGA 10:21 11% 3% 0.9% 72%
AA 3096 American Flight history → DFW 06:00 LGA 10:30 12% 3% 0.9% 84%
AA 1766 American Flight history → DFW 07:49 JFK 12:06 13% 3% 0.7% 75%
DL 551 Delta Flight history → DFW 07:00 LGA 11:29 13% 3% 0.8% 86%
AA 1796 American Flight history → DFW 06:54 EWR 11:10 15% 3% 0.9% 81%
UA 1268 United DFW 09:13 EWR 13:26 16% 5% 0.7% no record
WN 1279 Southwest DAL 08:21 LGA 12:38 16% 3% 0.8% no record
WN 3664 Southwest Flight history → DAL 08:30 LGA 12:50 16% 3% 0.7% 67%
UA 2454 United Flight history → DFW 10:32 EWR 15:07 16% 5% 0.7% 83%
AA 1609 American Flight history → DFW 07:40 LGA 12:13 18% 4% 0.9% 83%
AA 481 American Flight history → DFW 11:46 JFK 16:30 19% 5% 0.7% 50%
AA 2924 American DFW 08:34 LGA 13:18 19% 5% 0.9% no record
AA 1056 American Flight history → DFW 08:25 LGA 13:00 20% 5% 0.9% 75%
F9 2472 Frontier Flight history → DFW 07:50 EWR 12:31 21% 6% 1.3% 83%
DL 873 Delta Flight history → DFW 10:35 LGA 15:10 22% 4% 0.8% 76%
AA 1049 American Flight history → DFW 13:10 JFK 17:56 22% 6% 0.7% 58%
DL 846 Delta Flight history → DFW 18:59 LGA 23:33 25% 6% 0.9% 59%
UA 1439 United Flight history → DFW 20:27 EWR 00:59 25% 8% 0.7% 68%
AA 2861 American Flight history → DFW 11:47 EWR 16:20 27% 6% 0.8% 56%
AA 3053 American Flight history → DFW 09:30 LGA 13:59 27% 6% 0.9% 59%
AA 2178 American DFW 09:31 LGA 13:56 27% 6% 0.9% no record
UA 1574 United Flight history → DFW 13:00 EWR 17:37 28% 8% 0.7% 78%
AA 1203 American Flight history → DFW 17:39 JFK 22:30 28% 8% 0.7% 46%
DL 856 Delta Flight history → DFW 13:15 LGA 17:53 28% 8% 0.8% 64%
AA 578 American Flight history → DFW 16:13 JFK 21:00 28% 8% 0.7% 57%
DL 869 Delta Flight history → DFW 16:10 LGA 20:51 28% 9% 0.8% 69%
UA 402 United Flight history → DFW 16:52 EWR 21:27 30% 12% 0.8% 52%
WN 4478 Southwest Flight history → DAL 12:20 LGA 16:45 33% 9% 0.7% 32%
AA 3088 American Flight history → DFW 10:30 LGA 15:03 33% 7% 0.9% 53%
AA 2708 American Flight history → DFW 19:13 LGA 23:45 37% 9% 1.0% 55%
AA 3289 American Flight history → DFW 11:30 LGA 16:02 37% 9% 0.9% 52%
AA 618 American Flight history → DFW 14:25 EWR 19:04 39% 10% 1.0% 56%
AA 1329 American Flight history → DFW 17:50 LGA 22:30 39% 11% 1.0% 42%
AA 610 American Flight history → DFW 14:48 LGA 19:22 39% 13% 1.0% 54%
WN 4021 Southwest Flight history → DAL 16:00 LGA 20:25 41% 12% 0.7% 45%
AA 1535 American Flight history → DFW 13:54 LGA 18:28 41% 10% 1.0% 58%
AA 2028 American Flight history → DFW 15:55 LGA 20:29 41% 11% 1.2% 40%
WN 4852 Southwest Flight history → DAL 18:00 LGA 22:25 42% 12% 0.7% 19%
AA 2513 American Flight history → DFW 16:49 LGA 21:29 42% 10% 1.0% 56%
F9 3424 Frontier Flight history → DFW 17:18 LGA 22:00 46% 19% 1.3% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON