Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:26 pm at Washington); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 55%, against 39% on a calm day. Safest: OH 5644 at 22:04, 55%.

Nonstops today


OH 5644 PSA	DCA 22:04	BGR 23:58	55%	17%	1.3%	no record
AA 5436 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:04	BGR 23:59	55%	19%	1.5%	51%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bangor on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 17:40 → LGA 18:59DL 5763 · flown by Republic	3h 13m New York	LGA 22:12 → BGR 23:39DL 5396 · flown by Endeavor	5h 59m	93%	70%
American Details →	DCA 15:57 → ORD 17:15AA 1637	1h 53m Chicago	ORD 19:08 → BGR 22:57AA 340	7h 00m	93%	69%
United Details →	DCA 17:47 → EWR 19:00UA 4180 · flown by GoJet	2h 42m Newark	EWR 21:42 → BGR 23:15UA 3408 · flown by Republic	5h 28m	82%	58%
United Details →	DCA 15:30 → ORD 16:52UA 1325	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → BGR 21:47UA 5681 · flown by SkyWest	6h 17m	78%	57%
American Details →	DCA 17:14 → PHL 18:18AA 5248 · flown by PSA	1h 37m Philadelphia	PHL 19:55 → BGR 21:54AA 668	4h 40m	78%	41%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DCA 16:58 → ORD 18:07AA 1189	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 19:08 → BGR 22:57AA 340	5h 59m	66%	48%
Delta Details →	DCA 19:40 → LGA 21:04DL 5752 · flown by Republic	1h 08m New York	LGA 22:12 → BGR 23:39DL 5396 · flown by Endeavor	3h 59m	54%	41%
American Details →	DCA 17:18 → PHL 18:32AA 5406 · flown by PSA	1h 23m Philadelphia	PHL 19:55 → BGR 21:54AA 668	4h 36m	55%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON