Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:04 pm at Washington); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 31–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1516 Southwest	DCA 16:57	OMA 18:49	31%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 3050 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 16:55	OMA 18:40	35%	7%	0.2%	27%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 13:14 → ORD 14:24AA 808	1h 41m Chicago	ORD 16:05 → OMA 17:55AA 4724 · flown by Republic	5h 41m	93%	79%
Southwest Details →	DCA 18:40 → STL 20:00WN 1462	1h 53m St Louis	STL 21:53 → OMA 23:29WN 492	5h 49m	92%	72%
Southwest Details →	DCA 14:00 → DAL 16:10WN 3660	2h 25m Dallas	DAL 18:35 → OMA 20:29WN 2706	7h 29m	97%	72%
Southwest Details →	DCA 19:05 → MDW 20:15WN 1447	1h 45m Chicago	MDW 22:00 → OMA 23:34WN 2946	5h 29m	88%	71%
American Details →	DCA 13:59 → ORD 15:23AA 2398	2h 07m Chicago	ORD 17:30 → OMA 19:18AA 3738 · flown by Envoy	6h 19m	91%	71%
Southwest Details →	DCA 15:35 → MDW 16:45WN 4479	1h 40m Chicago	MDW 18:25 → OMA 19:50WN 2844	5h 15m	93%	70%
United Details →	DCA 16:13 → DEN 18:25UA 746	2h 40m Denver	DEN 21:05 → OMA 23:42UA 1787	8h 29m	96%	70%
Delta Details →	DCA 13:42 → ATL 15:33DL 737	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 19:30 → OMA 20:54DL 2707	8h 12m	95%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DCA 19:36 → ATL 21:37DL 1007	51m Atlanta	ATL 22:28 → OMA 23:49DL 2010	5h 13m	61%	46%
American Details →	DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:32 → OMA 20:29AA 2167	6h 16m	60%	37%
American Details →	DCA 17:18 → PHL 18:32AA 5406 · flown by PSA	1h 07m Philadelphia	PHL 19:39 → OMA 21:52AA 5545 · flown by PSA	5h 34m	57%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON