tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:36 pm at Washington); 3 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 18:30, is the safest bet: 42% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 25% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3191 American Flight history → DCA 18:01 PHX 19:50 40% 13% 0.5% 62%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:13 → CMH 18:54AA 4398 · flown by Republic 2h 23m Columbus CMH 21:17 → PHX 22:00AA 1958 7h 47m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:45 → SLC 20:41DL 820 2h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496 8h 46m 93% 70%
UnitedDetails → DCA 17:05 → ORD 18:30UA 654 2h 00m Chicago ORD 20:30 → PHX 22:27UA 602 8h 22m 92% 69%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:45 → LAX 19:19DL 392 3h 16m Los Angeles LAX 22:35 → PHX 00:06 +1DL 3827 · flown by SkyWest 10h 21m 90% 69%
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:22 → ORD 18:54AA 1630 3h 57m Chicago ORD 22:51 → PHX 00:56 +1AA 435 10h 34m 94% 67%
AmericanDetails → DCA 16:38 → ORD 17:25AA 1637 3h 23m Chicago ORD 20:48 → PHX 22:50AA 3277 9h 12m 98% 65%
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:59 → IAH 19:27UA 1785 2h 13m Houston IAH 21:40 → PHX 22:25UA 2432 8h 26m 90% 60%
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:40 → MIA 20:34AA 1612 1h 38m Miami MIA 22:12 → PHX 00:06 +1AA 2427 9h 26m 80% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:21 → ORD 18:11AA 1189 57m Chicago ORD 19:08 → PHX 21:11AA 2554 6h 50m 44% 29%
AlaskaDetails → DCA 17:00 → SEA 19:59AS 3 51m Seattle SEA 20:50 → PHX 23:49AS 644 9h 49m 49% 12%
JetBlueDetails → DCA 17:00 → BOS 18:42B6 2954 1h 01m Boston BOS 19:43 → PHX 22:15B6 1303 8h 15m 25% 11%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON