tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:31 pm at Washington); 10 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 60%, against 36% on a calm day. Safest: AA 544 at 18:51, 60%.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AA 544 American Flight history → DCA 18:51 TPA 21:18 60% 32% 2.2% 59%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:40 → MIA 20:34AA 1612 2h 39m Miami MIA 23:13 → TPA 00:19 +1AA 1714 6h 39m 89% 64%
AmericanDetails → DCA 16:38 → ORD 17:25AA 1637 1h 21m Chicago ORD 18:46 → TPA 22:44AA 353 6h 06m 76% 53%
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182 3h 11m Charlotte CLT 22:48 → TPA 00:39 +1AA 1773 6h 49m 95% 51%
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560 5h 59m 88% 47%
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:14 → PHL 18:18AA 5248 · flown by PSA 1h 41m Philadelphia PHL 19:59 → TPA 22:56AA 2322 5h 42m 83% 41%
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:00 → JFK 18:39DL 5713 · flown by Republic 1h 16m New York JFK 19:55 → TPA 23:20DL 1636 6h 20m 77% 38%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:11 → DFW 19:41AA 1414 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:30 → TPA 23:59AA 2256 6h 48m 59% 31%
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:18 → PHL 18:32AA 5406 · flown by PSA 1h 27m Philadelphia PHL 19:59 → TPA 22:56AA 2322 5h 38m 59% 29%
UnitedDetails → DCA 17:47 → EWR 19:00UA 4180 · flown by GoJet 1h 25m Newark EWR 20:25 → TPA 23:23UA 1505 5h 36m 65% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON