Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:32 am at Panama City Beach); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Today: AA 3625 at 12:24 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–39%.

Safest bet today AA 3625 ECP 12:24 → DFW 14:07 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest AA 5651 ECP 18:56 → DFW 21:13 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3625 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ECP 12:24	DFW 14:07	24%	7%	1.3%	73%
AA 5185 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ECP 12:25	DFW 14:38	26%	8%	2.7%	74%
MQ 3415 Envoy	ECP 16:09	DFW 18:18	30%	7%	1.3%	no record
AA 3502 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ECP 16:52	DFW 19:10	30%	7%	1.3%	54%
OH 5105 PSA	ECP 15:04	DFW 17:19	35%	10%	2.7%	no record
OH 5430 PSA	ECP 19:16	DFW 21:30	38%	9%	1.8%	no record
AA 5651 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ECP 18:56	DFW 21:13	39%	10%	2.7%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON