Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:42 pm at Panama City Beach); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 1861 at 16:00, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1861 Southwest	ECP 16:00	STL 18:01	24%	9%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ECP 14:05 → ORD 16:50UA 5654 · flown by SkyWest	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → STL 21:05UA 1625	7h 00m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	ECP 17:03 → ATL 19:21DL 3094	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	6h 50m	99%	71%
American Details →	ECP 16:17 → CLT 19:04AA 3552 · flown by Envoy	3h 52m Charlotte	CLT 22:56 → STL 23:58AA 459	7h 41m	100%	70%
Southwest Details →	ECP 18:20 → BNA 19:45WN 554	2h 40m Nashville	BNA 22:25 → STL 23:48WN 2379	5h 28m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 19:14 → STL 20:06DL 2833	5h 19m	93%	65%
American Details →	ECP 15:17 → ORD 18:19AA 4534 · flown by Republic	1h 17m Chicago	ORD 19:36 → STL 20:55AA 2444	5h 38m	89%	65%
United Details →	ECP 15:03 → IAH 16:45UA 4352 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 35m Houston	IAH 20:20 → STL 22:43UA 1528	7h 40m	98%	64%
Southwest Details →	ECP 14:55 → DEN 17:10WN 2176	2h 20m Denver	DEN 19:30 → STL 22:45WN 1756	7h 50m	96%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ECP 17:55 → DAL 19:55WN 2609	1h 10m Dallas	DAL 21:05 → STL 23:03WN 155	5h 08m	75%	50%
American Details →	ECP 18:56 → DFW 21:13AA 5651 · flown by PSA	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:02 → STL 23:54AA 1445	4h 58m	40%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON