Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:38 pm at Newark); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 3592 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 21:53	ILM 23:44	20%	4%	0.7%	78%
UA 4511 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	EWR 21:17	ILM 23:19	28%	8%	0.9%	65%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 16:29 → ATL 19:14DL 2322	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → ILM 22:56DL 3070	6h 27m	89%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:32AA 1811	53m Charlotte	CLT 22:25 → ILM 23:33AA 1017	4h 04m	37%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON