Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:53 am at Hilton Head Island)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: DL 5817 at 12:11, 31%.

Nonstops today


DL 5817 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	HHH 12:11	ATL 13:30	31%	8%	1.4%	84%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HHH 15:05 → ORD 16:51UA 3542 · flown by Republic	3h 18m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → ATL 23:30UA 2770	8h 25m	95%	75%
American Details →	HHH 14:03 → ORD 15:39AA 3862 · flown by Envoy	3h 20m Chicago	ORD 18:59 → ATL 22:03AA 2779	8h 00m	95%	67%
American Details →	HHH 11:07 → DCA 12:52AA 4515 · flown by Republic	1h 21m Washington	DCA 14:13 → ATL 16:28AA 4800 · flown by Republic	5h 21m	83%	66%
Delta Details →	HHH 16:14 → LGA 18:25DL 5590 · flown by Republic	2h 05m New York	LGA 20:30 → ATL 23:43DL 975	7h 29m	84%	63%
American Details →	HHH 11:47 → CLT 13:05AA 3563 · flown by Envoy	3h 12m Charlotte	CLT 16:17 → ATL 17:37AA 5067 · flown by PSA	5h 50m	100%	60%
American Details →	HHH 16:55 → CLT 18:19AA 3560 · flown by Envoy	2h 11m Charlotte	CLT 20:30 → ATL 21:52AA 5528 · flown by PSA	4h 57m	96%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	HHH 13:45 → EWR 16:00UA 3447 · flown by Republic	51m Newark	EWR 16:51 → ATL 19:17UA 2304	5h 32m	61%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON