tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 4515 at 11:07, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4515 American flown by Republic Flight history → HHH 11:07 DCA 12:52 24% 9% 1.9% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → HHH 15:05 → ORD 16:51UA 3542 · flown by Republic 2h 54m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160 7h 49m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → HHH 11:47 → CLT 13:05AA 3563 · flown by Envoy 1h 29m Charlotte CLT 14:34 → DCA 16:13AA 2839 4h 26m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → HHH 12:11 → ATL 13:30DL 5817 · flown by Republic 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850 5h 19m 91% 70%
AmericanDetails → HHH 16:55 → CLT 18:19AA 3560 · flown by Envoy 2h 30m Charlotte CLT 20:49 → DCA 22:20AA 527 5h 25m 99% 69%
AmericanDetails → HHH 14:03 → ORD 15:39AA 3862 · flown by Envoy 2h 16m Chicago ORD 17:55 → DCA 20:59AA 1787 6h 56m 93% 69%
AmericanDetails → HHH 14:48 → CLT 16:09AA 3562 · flown by Envoy 2h 13m Charlotte CLT 18:22 → DCA 20:00AA 2386 5h 12m 94% 64%
DeltaDetails → HHH 16:14 → LGA 18:25DL 5590 · flown by Republic 2h 55m New York LGA 21:20 → DCA 22:58DL 1825 6h 44m 86% 55%
UnitedDetails → HHH 13:45 → EWR 16:00UA 3447 · flown by Republic 2h 10m Newark EWR 18:10 → DCA 19:48UA 4432 · flown by GoJet 6h 03m 87% 44%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → HHH 16:14 → LGA 18:25DL 5590 · flown by Republic 50m New York LGA 19:15 → DCA 20:59DL 5724 · flown by Republic 4h 45m 58% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON