Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:21 am at Hilton Head Island)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: UA 3447 at 13:45, 28%.

Nonstops today


UA 3447 United flown by Republic Flight history →	HHH 13:45	EWR 16:00	28%	11%	2.7%	88%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HHH 15:05 → ORD 16:51UA 3542 · flown by Republic	3h 16m Chicago	ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759	8h 34m	95%	73%
Delta Details →	HHH 12:11 → ATL 13:30DL 5817 · flown by Republic	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340	5h 43m	90%	62%
American Details →	HHH 14:48 → CLT 16:09AA 3562 · flown by Envoy	2h 12m Charlotte	CLT 18:21 → EWR 20:30AA 1071	5h 42m	94%	61%
American Details →	HHH 11:47 → CLT 13:05AA 3563 · flown by Envoy	3h 38m Charlotte	CLT 16:43 → EWR 18:39AA 1811	6h 52m	100%	59%
American Details →	HHH 16:55 → CLT 18:19AA 3560 · flown by Envoy	1h 47m Charlotte	CLT 20:06 → EWR 22:12AA 2794	5h 17m	90%	50%
American Details →	HHH 14:03 → ORD 15:39AA 3862 · flown by Envoy	1h 57m Chicago	ORD 17:36 → EWR 21:00AA 3253	6h 57m	92%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON