Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:20 pm at Hilton Head Island); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 3542 at 15:05, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 3542 United flown by Republic Flight history →	HHH 15:05	ORD 16:51	26%	6%	1.3%	67%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Hilton Head Island). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	HHH 16:55 → CLT 18:19AA 3560 · flown by Envoy	3h 30m Charlotte	CLT 21:49 → ORD 22:58AA 815	7h 03m	99%	73%
American Details →	HHH 14:48 → CLT 16:09AA 3562 · flown by Envoy	2h 17m Charlotte	CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51AA 2488	6h 03m	96%	59%
Delta Details →	HHH 16:14 → LGA 18:25DL 5590 · flown by Republic	2h 20m New York	LGA 20:45 → ORD 22:36DL 2806	7h 22m	86%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON