Today: UA 1886 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–41%.

Safest bet today UA 1886 IAH 07:20 → EWR 11:59 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 2682 IAH 18:28 → LGA 22:50 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1886 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	EWR 11:59	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 1143 United	IAH 07:54	LGA 12:16	13%	4%	0.3%	no record
UA 2133 United Flight history →	IAH 08:05	LGA 12:40	13%	4%	0.4%	80%
DL 1449 Delta	IAH 10:53	LGA 15:18	21%	6%	0.4%	no record
UA 2402 United Flight history →	IAH 09:51	EWR 14:30	21%	5%	0.6%	79%
UA 2371 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	EWR 16:46	21%	8%	0.6%	72%
UA 678 United Flight history →	IAH 09:47	LGA 14:29	23%	6%	0.4%	77%
DL 2140 Delta Flight history →	IAH 10:50	LGA 15:32	23%	6%	0.5%	82%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	IAH 10:57	EWR 15:34	24%	6%	0.6%	73%
UA 1397 United Flight history →	IAH 13:46	EWR 18:30	24%	7%	0.6%	74%
DL 2088 Delta Flight history →	IAH 14:10	LGA 18:59	25%	7%	0.6%	73%
UA 1444 United Flight history →	IAH 19:55	EWR 00:37	25%	6%	0.8%	76%
UA 2181 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	LGA 16:44	26%	9%	0.4%	66%
WN 2067 Southwest	HOU 10:50	LGA 15:11	26%	4%	0.2%	no record
DL 1368 Delta	IAH 14:01	LGA 18:26	26%	7%	0.5%	no record
UA 2249 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	LGA 19:04	28%	9%	0.4%	69%
UA 2495 United	IAH 17:21	LGA 22:10	28%	10%	0.4%	no record
B6 1382 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 11:58	JFK 16:38	28%	11%	0.6%	50%
UA 404 United Flight history →	IAH 18:17	EWR 22:59	28%	7%	0.6%	66%
UA 700 United Flight history →	IAH 16:47	EWR 21:29	28%	9%	0.7%	64%
UA 2608 United Flight history →	IAH 14:49	EWR 19:35	29%	9%	0.7%	59%
UA 775 United	IAH 14:42	LGA 19:32	30%	9%	0.4%	no record
UA 334 United Flight history →	IAH 16:15	LGA 20:59	31%	10%	0.4%	61%
UA 2857 United Flight history →	IAH 17:15	LGA 21:59	31%	9%	0.5%	71%
DL 2943 Delta Flight history →	IAH 18:35	LGA 23:20	31%	6%	0.8%	60%
DL 1438 Delta	IAH 18:39	LGA 23:04	33%	6%	0.9%	no record
B6 282 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 18:17	JFK 23:00	35%	14%	0.7%	45%
WN 3543 Southwest	HOU 17:25	LGA 21:46	36%	6%	0.3%	no record
WN 2190 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 17:25	LGA 21:55	38%	6%	0.3%	28%
UA 2783 United Flight history →	IAH 18:31	LGA 23:14	39%	8%	0.7%	42%
WN 4392 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:40	LGA 19:10	39%	6%	0.3%	5%
WN 4684 Southwest	HOU 14:55	LGA 19:16	40%	5%	0.3%	no record
UA 2682 United Flight history →	IAH 18:28	LGA 22:50	41%	8%	0.7%	88%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	HOU 07:50 → MSY 09:00WN 1796	50m New Orleans	MSY 09:50 → LGA 13:45WN 3008	4h 55m	85%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON