Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:32 pm at Wilmington); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Philadelphia, leaving 18:57, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Wilmington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ILM 18:57 → PHL 20:42AA 6012 · flown by Piedmont	2h 21m Philadelphia	PHL 23:03 → ORD 00:29 +1AA 2840	6h 32m	100%	74%
Delta Details →	ILM 18:48 → ATL 20:35DL 1292	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	6h 05m	89%	71%
American Details →	ILM 18:28 → CLT 19:08AA 5416 · flown by PSA	3h 32m Charlotte	CLT 22:40 → ORD 23:48AA 627	6h 20m	100%	61%
American Details →	ILM 20:01 → CLT 21:16AA 1933	1h 23m Charlotte	CLT 22:39 → ORD 00:01 +1AA 3014	5h 00m	81%	49%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ILM 18:37 → LGA 20:29AA 4429 · flown by Republic	46m New York	LGA 21:15 → ORD 22:46AA 1689	5h 09m	54%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON