Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4628 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–50%.

Safest bet that day AA 4628 LGA 06:09 → ATL 08:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 4347 LGA 22:00 → ATL 00:27 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4628 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:09	ATL 08:43	6%	2%	0.9%	95%
DL 550 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:00	ATL 08:23	8%	2%	1.2%	91%
DL 364 Delta Flight history →	LGA 08:00	ATL 10:29	8%	2%	1.0%	92%
DL 342 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:59	ATL 09:20	8%	2%	1.2%	94%
YX 4617 Republic	LGA 06:24	ATL 09:01	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
DL 992 Delta Flight history →	LGA 09:00	ATL 11:32	9%	3%	0.9%	87%
DL 989 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:00	ATL 12:28	10%	3%	0.8%	84%
YX 4600 Republic	LGA 09:15	ATL 11:48	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 993 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:59	ATL 13:20	11%	3%	0.8%	83%
YX 4349 Republic	LGA 12:14	ATL 15:00	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 990 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:59	ATL 14:31	14%	3%	0.8%	83%
DL 974 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:00	ATL 18:02	15%	6%	0.7%	81%
DL 994 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:00	ATL 15:32	15%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 4624 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:58	ATL 16:33	16%	5%	0.7%	68%
DL 988 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:59	ATL 16:30	16%	4%	0.7%	76%
DL 975 Delta Flight history →	LGA 20:30	ATL 23:43	18%	10%	0.8%	68%
DL 969 Delta Flight history →	LGA 16:00	ATL 19:07	19%	8%	0.7%	70%
F9 3287 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 06:29	ATL 09:17	20%	6%	1.6%	63%
DL 968 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:00	ATL 20:24	20%	8%	0.7%	76%
DL 964 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:00	ATL 21:20	22%	9%	0.8%	71%
DL 970 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:59	ATL 22:24	22%	10%	0.8%	66%
AA 4599 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:35	ATL 22:15	22%	9%	0.8%	64%
AA 4607 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:10	ATL 18:41	28%	9%	0.7%	59%
F9 3453 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 18:53	ATL 21:45	46%	33%	1.2%	46%
F9 4347 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 22:00	ATL 00:27	50%	30%	1.2%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON