Today: AA 4749 at 12:05 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–48%.

Safest bet today AA 4749 LGA 12:05 → RDU 14:06 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 1097 LGA 19:46 → RDU 21:29 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4749 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:05	RDU 14:06	17%	6%	0.2%	75%
AA 4666 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:44	RDU 15:44	19%	6%	0.2%	70%
AA 2221 American	LGA 09:44	RDU 11:27	24%	9%	0.4%	no record
AA 4436 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:30	RDU 18:43	26%	8%	0.4%	69%
DL 2017 Delta	LGA 14:26	RDU 16:09	28%	10%	0.3%	no record
AA 4485 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:55	RDU 18:59	28%	8%	0.4%	48%
DL 2014 Delta	LGA 19:10	RDU 20:53	42%	14%	0.3%	no record
AA 2969 American Flight history →	LGA 19:23	RDU 21:12	46%	20%	0.6%	37%
AA 1097 American	LGA 19:46	RDU 21:29	48%	21%	0.5%	no record
DL 5108 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 13:40	RDU 15:32	27%	9%	2.8%	73%
DL 5109 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 15:30	RDU 17:35	29%	12%	8.0%	71%
DL 5502 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 11:20	RDU 13:12	32%	23%	3.6%	68%
DL 5101 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:11	RDU 19:19	37%	18%	14.7%	63%
DL 5442 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 19:50	RDU 21:57	44%	25%	25.6%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON