Today: DL 5664 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet today DL 5664 LGA 07:15 → RIC 08:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest YX 5791 LGA 20:47 → RIC 22:21 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5664 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 07:15	RIC 08:55	7%	3%	0.3%	88%
AA 4486 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 07:50	RIC 09:32	8%	3%	0.3%	95%
YX 5799 Republic	LGA 07:45	RIC 09:18	9%	3%	0.3%	no record
YX 4457 Republic	LGA 08:56	RIC 10:29	11%	3%	0.2%	no record
AA 4501 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:10	RIC 12:41	13%	4%	0.2%	84%
YX 4622 Republic	LGA 11:01	RIC 12:34	13%	4%	0.2%	no record
YX 5785 Republic	LGA 15:25	RIC 16:59	18%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 4673 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:45	RIC 18:32	22%	6%	0.3%	76%
DL 5760 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:21	RIC 19:16	25%	7%	0.4%	72%
DL 5815 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:15	RIC 23:01	25%	9%	0.9%	78%
AA 4503 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:18	RIC 19:00	28%	7%	0.4%	63%
AA 4345 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:29	RIC 22:58	31%	9%	0.9%	67%
YX 5784 Republic	LGA 17:44	RIC 19:18	31%	10%	0.8%	no record
YX 5791 Republic	LGA 20:47	RIC 22:21	33%	9%	0.9%	no record
DL 5313 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:36	RIC 12:14	24%	8%	7.0%	76%
DL 5516 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 15:29	RIC 17:19	24%	8%	14.3%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON