Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4654 at 16:40, 37%.

Safest bet today WN 4654 MCO 16:40 → HOU 18:15 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time Riskiest WN 1503 MCO 20:06 → HOU 21:34 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Weather 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4654 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 16:40	HOU 18:15	37%	10%	0.4%	53%
WN 2754 Southwest	MCO 16:42	HOU 17:33	42%	11%	0.4%	no record
WN 2722 Southwest	MCO 18:45	HOU 20:13	42%	21%	0.5%	no record
WN 2645 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:20	HOU 23:50	45%	15%	0.5%	52%
WN 2724 Southwest	MCO 22:41	HOU 00:07	45%	16%	0.5%	no record
WN 4493 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:35	HOU 21:05	48%	20%	0.5%	35%
WN 1503 Southwest	MCO 20:06	HOU 21:34	49%	22%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON