Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:06 pm at Miami)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 3897 at 21:58, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 3897 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 21:58	ILM 23:59	14%	3%	0.3%	79%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:57DL 1323	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → ILM 22:56DL 3070	6h 05m	94%	79%
United Details →	MIA 17:22 → EWR 20:37UA 2691	1h 16m Newark	EWR 21:53 → ILM 23:44UA 3592 · flown by Republic	6h 22m	81%	64%
American Details →	MIA 17:23 → CLT 19:45AA 400	2h 40m Charlotte	CLT 22:25 → ILM 23:33AA 1017	6h 10m	95%	61%
American Details →	MIA 16:38 → DFW 18:48AA 3259	1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:10 → ILM 23:57AA 1841	7h 19m	77%	44%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → ILM 22:56DL 3070	4h 56m	72%	60%
American Details →	MIA 19:10 → CLT 21:26AA 3131	59m Charlotte	CLT 22:25 → ILM 23:33AA 1017	4h 23m	68%	44%
American Details →	MIA 16:39 → DFW 19:04AA 2823	1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:10 → ILM 23:57AA 1841	7h 18m	61%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON