tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:50 pm at Miami); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Bush, leaving 16:53, is the safest bet: 49% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 46% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1792 American MIA 20:09 SAN 22:35 40% 9% 0.6% no record
AA 2463 American Flight history → MIA 20:12 SAN 22:38 40% 9% 0.6% 44%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:36 → SFO 19:29UA 2810 3h 13m San Francisco SFO 22:42 → SAN 00:31 +1UA 2142 10h 55m 99% 64%
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:44 → DEN 18:23UA 2852 2h 41m Denver DEN 21:04 → SAN 22:43UA 2395 9h 59m 96% 61%
DeltaDetails → MIA 15:17 → JFK 18:50DL 1514 1h 39m New York JFK 20:29 → SAN 23:43DL 685 11h 26m 87% 58%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 1h 18m Chicago ORD 20:11 → SAN 22:23UA 1564 9h 13m 82% 53%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:00 → ATL 18:25DL 1579 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 21:28 → SAN 22:57DL 896 9h 57m 96% 53%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 15:05 → BWI 17:45WN 2924 3h 20m Baltimore BWI 21:05 → SAN 23:25WN 1089 11h 20m 96% 52%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216 1h 07m Houston IAH 20:03 → SAN 21:24UA 2407 7h 31m 85% 49%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:39 → DFW 19:04AA 2823 3h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:55 → SAN 23:59AA 2568 10h 20m 98% 48%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 19:17 → LAX 21:49DL 450 56m Los Angeles LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest 7h 25m 63% 43%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:57DL 1323 52m Atlanta ATL 19:49 → SAN 21:16DL 819 7h 25m 64% 29%
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:48 → DFW 19:57AA 2828 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:46 → SAN 21:58AA 1160 7h 10m 46% 19%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON