tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:07 pm at Minneapolis); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
DL 4913 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history → MSP 16:01 DSM 17:16 16% 6% 0.3% 80%
DL 5253 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history → MSP 20:19 DSM 21:34 18% 6% 0.4% 73%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MSP 18:02 → ORD 20:10AA 4465 · flown by Republic 2h 21m Chicago ORD 22:31 → DSM 00:01 +1AA 4442 · flown by Republic 5h 59m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSP 15:16 → ORD 16:58UA 1531 2h 47m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DSM 21:22UA 1325 6h 06m 94% 77%
UnitedDetails → MSP 17:13 → ORD 19:00UA 658 2h 25m Chicago ORD 21:25 → DSM 22:56UA 1839 5h 43m 93% 73%
DeltaDetails → MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476 1h 22m Detroit DTW 20:21 → DSM 21:13DL 5087 · flown by Endeavor 4h 58m 88% 72%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305 2h 52m Denver DEN 17:40 → DSM 20:30UA 549 6h 54m 99% 71%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:08 → ORD 14:53UA 5570 · flown by SkyWest 1h 22m Chicago ORD 16:15 → DSM 17:35UA 2836 4h 27m 88% 71%
DeltaDetails → MSP 15:58 → ATL 19:41DL 1028 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306 6h 31m 89% 69%
SouthwestDetails → MSP 19:15 → MDW 20:50WN 4115 1h 15m Chicago MDW 22:05 → DSM 23:35WN 4279 4h 20m 86% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSP 18:23 → DEN 19:45UA 467 1h 00m Denver DEN 20:45 → DSM 23:44UA 5389 · flown by SkyWest 5h 21m 74% 47%
UnitedDetails → MSP 19:02 → ORD 20:35UA 1237 50m Chicago ORD 21:25 → DSM 22:56UA 1839 3h 54m 55% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON