Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:21 pm at Minneapolis); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 2733 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:58	LGA 23:40	17%	5%	0.1%	77%
DL 2732 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:30	LGA 19:18	20%	8%	0.2%	74%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	2h 51m Detroit	DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603	6h 25m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	MSP 15:58 → ATL 19:41DL 1028	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 21:52 → LGA 23:59DL 9961	7h 01m	96%	71%
American Details →	MSP 16:03 → ORD 17:59AA 4727 · flown by Republic	2h 00m Chicago	ORD 19:59 → LGA 23:21AA 679	6h 18m	100%	69%
United Details →	MSP 17:05 → IAD 20:43UA 3678 · flown by Republic	1h 22m Dulles	IAD 22:05 → LGA 23:30UA 3682 · flown by Republic	5h 25m	94%	68%
Southwest Details →	MSP 16:15 → MDW 17:45WN 2971	2h 00m Chicago	MDW 19:45 → LGA 23:00WN 4120	5h 45m	98%	60%
United Details →	MSP 17:13 → ORD 19:00UA 658	1h 08m Chicago	ORD 20:08 → LGA 23:26UA 2827	5h 13m	80%	59%
Southwest Details →	MSP 16:00 → BNA 18:00WN 2962	2h 05m Nashville	BNA 20:05 → LGA 23:25WN 2144	6h 25m	96%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036	47m Atlanta	ATL 21:52 → LGA 23:59DL 9961	5h 41m	72%	53%
American Details →	MSP 17:46 → DCA 21:27AA 5416 · flown by PSA	46m Washington	DCA 22:13 → LGA 23:35AA 4719 · flown by Republic	4h 49m	55%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON