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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4706 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 4706 MSY 05:20 → HOU 06:41 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1810 MSY 18:40 → HOU 19:55 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time
Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

WN 4706 Southwest MSY 05:20 HOU 06:41 8% 2% 1.3% no record
WN 4547 Southwest Flight history → MSY 05:30 HOU 06:45 11% 2% 1.3% 89%
WN 2995 Southwest Flight history → MSY 07:25 HOU 08:40 11% 3% 1.2% 86%
WN 3111 Southwest MSY 08:05 HOU 09:26 12% 3% 1.2% no record
WN 934 Southwest Flight history → MSY 09:20 HOU 10:35 18% 3% 1.2% 88%
WN 3116 Southwest MSY 10:55 HOU 12:16 20% 4% 0.9% no record
WN 4662 Southwest Flight history → MSY 20:35 HOU 21:50 26% 8% 0.8% 71%
WN 2498 Southwest MSY 12:55 HOU 14:16 28% 6% 1.2% no record
WN 1642 Southwest Flight history → MSY 12:20 HOU 13:35 28% 5% 0.9% 75%
WN 2998 Southwest Flight history → MSY 16:00 HOU 17:15 30% 6% 0.8% 56%
WN 1810 Southwest Flight history → MSY 18:40 HOU 19:55 32% 8% 0.8% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON