Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 356 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 356 PHX 06:50 → ORD 12:28 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1078 PHX 15:15 → ORD 20:56 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 356 United Flight history →	PHX 06:50	ORD 12:28	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 3008 American Flight history →	PHX 05:14	ORD 11:00	9%	3%	0.3%	90%
AA 2506 American	PHX 05:36	ORD 11:05	11%	3%	0.3%	no record
AA 2765 American Flight history →	PHX 07:00	ORD 12:51	11%	3%	1.0%	91%
UA 2823 United	PHX 00:00	ORD 05:13	13%	3%	0.2%	no record
AA 1148 American Flight history →	PHX 00:50	ORD 06:25	13%	4%	0.3%	79%
UA 1124 United Flight history →	PHX 08:59	ORD 14:39	15%	5%	0.6%	61%
AA 319 American Flight history →	PHX 08:30	ORD 14:21	15%	4%	1.0%	86%
AA 2474 American	PHX 08:53	ORD 14:33	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 2252 American Flight history →	PHX 10:15	ORD 16:12	17%	5%	0.9%	78%
AA 2710 American	PHX 10:20	ORD 15:52	17%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 1748 United Flight history →	PHX 11:12	ORD 16:54	19%	6%	0.6%	78%
UA 2652 United	PHX 11:23	ORD 16:54	19%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1842 United Flight history →	PHX 13:14	ORD 18:48	23%	7%	0.6%	83%
UA 1210 United Flight history →	PHX 17:49	ORD 23:31	24%	7%	0.6%	79%
UA 2628 United Flight history →	PHX 13:28	ORD 19:10	25%	8%	0.6%	62%
UA 1402 United	PHX 16:38	ORD 22:08	26%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 3137 American Flight history →	PHX 19:09	ORD 00:51	26%	6%	0.9%	58%
AA 338 American Flight history →	PHX 12:15	ORD 18:08	27%	6%	0.9%	70%
AA 695 American Flight history →	PHX 18:02	ORD 23:27	27%	7%	0.9%	82%
UA 1686 United Flight history →	PHX 14:48	ORD 20:30	28%	9%	0.6%	61%
AA 2786 American Flight history →	PHX 15:28	ORD 21:30	30%	8%	0.9%	59%
AA 435 American Flight history →	PHX 17:38	ORD 23:30	30%	8%	0.9%	65%
AA 1078 American	PHX 15:15	ORD 20:56	30%	9%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON