Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:20 am at Providence)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3400 Southwest Flight history →	PVD 10:30	BNA 12:00	12%	2%	0.3%	88%
WN 4095 Southwest	PVD 12:40	BNA 14:34	16%	3%	0.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Providence). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PVD 07:40 → MDW 09:05WN 3118	2h 15m Chicago	MDW 11:20 → BNA 12:45WN 2733	6h 05m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	PVD 09:25 → BWI 10:50WN 3402	4h 00m Baltimore	BWI 14:50 → BNA 15:51WN 958	7h 26m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04DL 2147	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490	6h 25m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	PVD 17:00 → DTW 19:11DL 4040 · flown by SkyWest	2h 24m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → BNA 22:15DL 2126	6h 15m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	PVD 08:41 → ATL 11:15DL 2840	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159	6h 22m	96%	81%
Southwest Details →	PVD 17:35 → BWI 19:05WN 3196	2h 15m Baltimore	BWI 21:20 → BNA 22:21WN 2668	5h 46m	96%	80%
American Details →	PVD 13:38 → ORD 15:30AA 3453 · flown by Envoy	1h 41m Chicago	ORD 17:11 → BNA 18:54AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	6h 16m	94%	79%
American Details →	PVD 10:08 → DCA 11:24AA 5438 · flown by PSA	2h 30m Washington	DCA 13:54 → BNA 14:59AA 3991 · flown by Envoy	5h 51m	96%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	PVD 16:50 → DCA 18:25WN 3515	50m Washington	DCA 19:15 → BNA 20:13WN 4523	4h 23m	70%	51%
American Details →	PVD 15:15 → DCA 16:59AA 5334 · flown by PSA	47m Washington	DCA 17:46 → BNA 18:58AA 1163	4h 43m	71%	46%
Southwest Details →	PVD 15:15 → TPA 18:20WN 823	50m Tampa	TPA 19:10 → BNA 20:08WN 2364	5h 53m	57%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON