Today: DL 3830 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–37%.

Safest bet today DL 3830 SEA 07:15 → GEG 08:32 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 454 SEA 11:42 → GEG 12:48 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 3830 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 07:15	GEG 08:32	13%	4%	0.2%	96%
DL 3824 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 09:35	GEG 10:48	20%	3%	0.2%	89%
DL 3857 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 15:40	GEG 16:55	22%	3%	0.2%	93%worse than usual
DL 3754 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 10:50	GEG 12:11	23%	4%	0.2%	82%
DL 4145 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:35	GEG 15:47	23%	3%	0.2%	88%worse than usual
OO 3315 SkyWest	SEA 08:55	GEG 10:09	25%	6%	0.2%	no record
DL 3832 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:59	GEG 19:15	25%	6%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
DL 3677 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 19:57	GEG 21:13	25%	6%	0.8%	90%worse than usual
OO 3218 SkyWest	SEA 17:49	GEG 19:03	26%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 3220 SkyWest	SEA 16:00	GEG 17:14	29%	4%	0.2%	no record
AS 3305 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 15:51	GEG 16:59	29%	4%	0.2%	78%
DL 2354 Delta Flight history →	SEA 22:45	GEG 23:55	31%	7%	0.7%	60%
AS 1433 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:51	GEG 19:00	33%	4%	0.6%	73%
AS 448 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 20:24	GEG 21:30	33%	5%	0.6%	83%worse than usual
AS 347 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 21:29	GEG 22:35	33%	5%	0.6%	79%worse than usual
AS 350 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 22:54	GEG 23:59	36%	5%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
AS 1342 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 19:50	GEG 20:56	37%	5%	0.6%	71%
AS 355 Alaska	SEA 13:34	GEG 14:40	40%	4%	0.3%	no record
AS 9411 Alaska	SEA 15:18	GEG 16:19	42%	3%	0.3%	no record
AS 724 Alaska	SEA 10:20	GEG 11:26	45%	4%	0.3%	no record
AS 454 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:42	GEG 12:48	45%	4%	0.3%	82%worse than usual
AS 2135 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 07:20	GEG 08:26	7%	2%	0.0%	93%
AS 2200 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 09:55	GEG 11:00	8%	2%	1.9%	92%
AS 2074 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 14:22	GEG 15:25	16%	0%	1.8%	84%
AS 2071 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 21:30	GEG 22:36	30%	11%	0.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON